Dr. Richard Benkin
Originally published in Daily Asian Age, Dhaka
https://dailyasianage.com/news/280982/is-bangladesh-at--a-geopolitical-crossroads
Between the end of World War II in May 1945 and the fall of the Soviet Union on 26 December 1991, the world was seen through the prism of the Cold War-and not just by the two combatants, the USA and the USSR. Of course, there were other important events, most notably the fall of European colonialism and learning to live with the threat of nuclear annihilation. But geopolitics were defined by the Cold War.
I recall, as an American during that period, how we often saw countries as either good or bad, based on where they stood in that conflict. Americans never bought Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's concept of non-aligned countries. His non-aligned movement failed to establish a viable alternative to the two super powers and their political philosophies. I also remember many of those same countries playing the US and USSR off one another, currying favor with one side then the other and creating a "bidding war" between them.
Is that what Bangladesh is trying to do today, playing off the United States and Communist China? If so, it won't work. Americans found that game frustrating and have learned not to fall into that trap again. It's difficult not to conclude that intention, however. How else can you explain Pakistan and Bangladesh ignoring China's genocidal program against its Muslim population? Bangladesh's constitution begins with the word, Bismillah. Is that how your government lives by that word?
Moreover, the trail of nations shattered by China's predatory lending is large and getting larger; while nations who gained more than they lost are missing in action. Sri Lanka, Djibouti, Montenegro, Pakistan all had to cede control of important assets to China, and there are several more close to defaulting. Will Bangladesh be next? Sri Lanka had to cede control of Hambantota Port, Pakistan gave up Gwadar. It would be interesting to see what assets Sheikh Hasina plans to cede when China's debt trap slams closed on Bangladesh. Chittagong? Matarbari? China does not accept small sacrifices.
Bangladesh's moves toward China under this government have not gone unnoticed in Washington. If, however, anyone thinks that's a good thing for Bangladesh, they better think again. The soundings from Washington have not been encouraging for those who want to use the US-China competition the same way they used the US-Soviet one.
In December 2020, after a great deal of effort and previous tries, both the US House and Senate passed separate resolutions condemning blasphemy laws with overwhelming bi-partisan support-this at a time when partisan divisions were at their greatest. Not only that, both resolutions specifically named Bangladesh and Pakistan as the most egregious human rights violators in this regard. This past December and January only got worse.
In December, the United States, Australia, India, and Japan invited 111 mostly Asian democracies to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad. Bangladesh was not among them. In addition to security, the Quad helps countries with things like trade and infrastructure, which are critical to Bangladesh's future. It was an unexpected snub, and experts in the US and Asia see it as deliberate. In January, the United States condemned the anti-Hindu violence in Bangladesh. But that violence occurs regularly and all the time around Hindu festival of Durga Puja.
Generally, nations and media are muted, some not even commenting about it. This year was different. Condemnations poured in from all over. Moreover, for years, America had accepted Bangladesh protestation that they were the work of radicals and not reflective of anything else. This year, however, the US and all its agencies instead made a point about the Awami League government's responsibility for the violence and for stopping it.
Then there were the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing on the nomination of Peter D, Hass to become the next US ambassador to Bangladesh. Much behind-the-scenes discussion revolved around the brutalization of Bangladesh's Hindus and the government's responsibility for enabling it and its obligation to stop it.
During the public portion, the leading Republican made a point of calling out the increased power of radicals in Bangladesh. Both are serious issues that will not go away. We really like your country and especially the Bangladeshi people, and would not send messages like this lightly. The big question is whether your government will read them for what they or incorrectly believe that they can thumb their noses at the United States without the US doing anything in return.
Wait, wait, wait. No one's sending in the marines or breaking off relations. But there will be consequences--and if someone tells me that we better not act or they'd move even closer to China, I would ask them how many Bangladeshi garments the Chinese will buy; because while the US is Bangladesh's biggest customer, China is its biggest competitor.
The garment industry will get even tighter as we come out of the pandemic, with exporting countries less likely to absorb major financial hits. If the Bangladeshi government chooses China over the US, that's certainly its prerogative. But it is similarly the US's prerogative to make trade agreements with nations that share our vision and do not assist China at our expense. (And believe me, I have spoken with a plethora of countries that would love that garment market-and they're rebuffing China and its predatory Belt & Road loans.)
Bangladesh is at a geopolitical crossroads. It can continue its flirtation with China, ignoring China's genocide of its Muslim Uighurs, or it can reject the forces of tyranny inside and outside of the country. It can defeat the retrograde forces and protect all Bangladeshis regardless of faith. It can be seen as progressive rather than retrograde-with all the benefits that come to the people of nations that choose democracy and freedom. I renew the offer I have made on numerous occasions to assist in Bangladesh doing just that. As one who cares very much about the nation and people of Bangladesh, I would love nothing better.
The writer is an American scholar and a geopolitical analyst.