Dr. Richard Benkin
Originally published in the Daily Asian Age of Dhaka
https://dailyasianage.com/news/297877/lessons-from-the-2022-us-elections--concluding-part
Implications for 2024: Joe Biden: Although a lot can happen between now and the 2024 Presidential election, the 2022 midterms will have an impact on it. Before the midterm elections, the common wisdom was that President Biden would not run for re-election in 2024; and, especially among Democrats, that he should not run. As noted above, he is not a popular President, with more Americans disapproving of him than approving. Inflation, one of the biggest problems for any President's electability, continues to top eight percent. Making matters worse, the United States has not experienced significant inflation for more than 40 years, which means that many American voters are watching the value of their money drop for the first time in their lifetimes. At the same time, they are seeing a bit of an economic slowdown, also something that they have not seen since, except for the 2008 recession and the height of the pandemic. Biden also has presided over increased social unrest and rising crime. In fact, Biden was seen by many Democrats as a political liability, and they avoided campaigning with him during their election efforts. Many equivocated when asked if they would support the President for re-election.
The same factors that predicted Democratic disaster in 2022 worked against Biden running in 2024. In many ways, they were similar to the situation in 1980 when President Jimmy Carter failed in his bid for a second term. And unlike Carter, Biden also faced questions about his age. If he is elected to a second term, he will be the oldest person ever to be sworn in as President: just over 82 years old. President Ronald Reagan in comparison, who currently holds that distinction, was just under 74 when he was sworn in for his second term. People began encouraging a number of prominent Democrats to run for President. But the election results, in no way what people expected, indicated that voters were not looking at things the way most pundits were. In fact, less than three weeks after the election, one of the most talked about Democratic alternatives to Biden, California Governor Gavin Newsom, laid any speculation to rest, telling "everyone in the White House from the chief of staff to the first lady 'I'm all in, count me in'" on the President's re-election. In a private conversation, he also told Biden directly. After the midterms, speculation about Biden not running has quieted down; the 2024 Democratic nomination for President is his to lose.
Many insiders, however, believe that the election was not a referendum on Joe Biden's presidency or which party voters believe are best able to handle critical issues, such as the economy, our southern border, and foreign policy challenges. Early in the cycle, GOP Senate leader Mike McConnell said that many Republican primaries ended with, as he put it, a lot of poor quality candidates. As someone who has been involved in US politics for many years, I can say that, yes, party does matter, but voters weigh the pros and cons of the specific candidates in these Congressional elections, rather than vote for or against a party's performance. That could mean that President Biden, if he runs, will be a weak candidate. So, in the end, did midterm success actually hurt Democratic chances in 2024?
Implications for 2024: Donald Trump: Former President Donald Trump officially announced that he was running for a second term in 2024 one week after the midterms. His announcement was widely seen as foregone conclusion, and most pollsters believed that Trump has the inside track for the GOP nomination. But the midterms put that in doubt. Trump backed a number of "his" candidates against more mainstream Republicans in primary elections (those that determine a party's nominee) and won most of them. In many cases, Trump was outspoken about defeating certain Republicans, especially those who voted for his impeachment, or in his support for those who outspokenly identified themselves as strong supporters of the former President. But when they had to face all voters and not just those conservative activists, Trump's track record was not very good. His candidates lost overwhelmingly, especially in so-called battleground states where both parties have a relatively equal chance of winning. His candidates did especially poorly when they needed votes from an entire state, for offices like state Governor or US Senator. Republicans feel in many cases that the candidate Trump vilified and defeated in the primary would have won the general election; and that if he did not oppose other, good Republicans, the GOP would have won the Senate as well as the House. It seemed to many that Trump's endorsement reflected a candidate's loyalty to him and his claims, rather than who the best candidate is. McConnell's comment about candidate quality was seen almost universally as a knock on Trump.
More importantly for Republicans, it was clear that Trump has a committed core of followers, enough to win primaries; but he remains a polarizing figure who does not have the gravitas to bring home a victory where it matters. That has led many Republican leaders to move further away from Trump and to begin looking at other potential Presidential candidate. The most talked about since the midterms is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who was a vote-getting juggernaut in his election. DeSantis and Trump were once allies, but since people have touted DeSantis for 2024, Trump has taken several swipes at him. Other 2024 GOP hopefuls include Trump's former Vice President and Secretary of State, Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo respectively. Another is former South Carolina Governor and high profile US Ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, Nicki Haley, whose parents immigrated to the US from India. Many Republicans believe that in order to take back the White House, they need to nominate someone other than Donald Trump. Prior to the midterms, most were concerned about his electoral power and well-known grudge-holding against those who oppose him. But Trump's electoral losses have caused many to re-assess that fear.
There is also a sense among many Americans that it's time to get past the vitriol and divisiveness of the past and move into a new era of bi-partisan cooperation. Many have told me that the former President has shown he is not able win over enough independents and others in those battleground states for them to win an election. So, in the end, did midterm losses actually help Republican chances in 2024?
Americans voted their values over their pocketbooks: As mentioned earlier, a lot can happen between now and 2024, and the US political landscape is littered with the remains of people who counted out Donald Trump. What if something happens to President Biden, and Vice President Kamala Harris (who also some Indian heritage) takes over the job? And there can be crises or successes in so many different arenas-from the crisis on our border and immigration to foreign conflicts to a resurgence of what remains the strongest economy on the globe.
What is clear is that American voters are not as predictable as some people think. They went to the polls with high inflation after decades of none, high petrol and home heating bills, lower oil production, and increased crime in our major cities; but they did not vote for their financial interests. In the end, they voted for candidates who reflected their values and commitment to democracy and fairness. That is an important lesson for America's friends and foes, partners and competitors. We will not give up the values that are the basis for our way of life and success over the years, simply for some immediate relief from our material concerns.
Dr. Richard Benkin is an American scholar and a geopolitical analyst.